The Current State of Bitcoin Mining
Bitcoin’s total supply is hardcapped at 21 million BTC, a fixed limit enforced at the protocol level. As of May 2025, approximately 19.6 million BTC (93.3% of the total supply) have been mined, leaving only 1.4 million BTC left to be created.
Why Is Bitcoin’s Issuance So Uneven?
Bitcoin follows an exponential issuance schedule governed by halving events. When Bitcoin launched in 2009, the block reward was 50 BTC per block. Every 210,000 blocks (roughly every four years), this reward is cut in half.
- By the end of 2020, over 87% of Bitcoin’s total supply had already been mined.
- Each halving reduces new issuance, meaning the remaining 6.7% will take over a century to mine.
- Estimates suggest 99% of Bitcoin will be mined by 2035, but the last satoshis won’t be produced until 2140 due to geometric reward reduction.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Comparison of Scarcity
Bitcoin is often compared to gold due to its deflationary nature, but Bitcoin’s scarcity is even more predictable:
| Asset | Annual Supply Growth | Total Supply Cap | Lost Supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | Declining (halvings) | 21 million BTC | ~3-3.8M BTC (lost) |
| Gold | ~1.7% per year | No hard cap | Nearly all remains in circulation |
👉 Discover more about Bitcoin’s economic model
The Impact of Lost Bitcoin
Not all mined Bitcoin is circulating:
- Between 3.0M–3.8M BTC (~14–18% of the total supply) is likely permanently lost due to forgotten passwords, destroyed hard drives, or inactive wallets.
- This means Bitcoin’s true circulating supply may be closer to 16–17 million BTC, not 21 million.
Unlike gold, Bitcoin cannot be recovered—lost coins remain lost, making Bitcoin’s supply shrinking over time.
What Happens When Bitcoin Is Fully Mined?
Will Security Suffer Without Block Rewards?
A common concern is that shrinking block rewards will weaken Bitcoin’s security. However, Bitcoin’s mining economy is self-correcting:
- Difficulty Adjustment: Every 2,016 blocks, mining difficulty adjusts to maintain 10-minute block times.
- Profit-Driven Mining: If mining becomes unprofitable, inefficient miners exit, reducing difficulty and improving margins for remaining miners.
- Fee Market Growth: Transaction fees will gradually replace block rewards as the primary mining incentive.
Example: In April 2024, Bitcoin miners earned $80M in fees in a single day**, surpassing the **$26M block reward—proving fees can sustain mining.
The Future of Bitcoin Mining Energy Use
Contrary to myths, Bitcoin mining does not endlessly consume energy:
- Over 52–59% of mining now uses renewable energy.
- Higher BTC prices don’t guarantee higher energy use—mining profitability caps expansion.
- Regulations push miners toward cleaner energy sources, reducing environmental impact.
👉 Explore Bitcoin’s energy efficiency
FAQs
1. When will the last Bitcoin be mined?
The final Bitcoin is expected around 2140, but 99% will be mined by 2035.
2. How does Bitcoin’s halving affect price?
Historically, halvings reduce supply, often leading to bull markets as demand outpaces new issuance.
3. Can lost Bitcoin be recovered?
No—Bitcoin’s design ensures lost coins stay lost, permanently reducing supply.
4. Will transaction fees replace block rewards?
Yes—as rewards diminish, fees will become the dominant mining incentive.
5. Is Bitcoin mining still profitable?
Profitability depends on BTC price vs. mining costs. Efficient miners adapt via energy optimization.
6. How does Bitcoin’s scarcity compare to gold?
Bitcoin has a hard supply cap, while gold’s supply grows yearly. Bitcoin’s circulating supply may shrink due to lost coins.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s engineered scarcity and immutable supply cap make it a unique digital asset. With 93% already mined, the remaining Bitcoin will be released slowly over the next century, reinforcing its deflationary nature.
The combination of halvings, lost coins, and fee-driven security ensures Bitcoin remains secure and valuable long after the last coin is mined.
👉 Learn how Bitcoin’s scarcity drives its value