Key Metrics (January 27, 4 PM - February 3, 4 PM HKT)
- BTC/USD: Decreased by 3.8% (from $98.8K** to **$95.1K)
- ETH/USD: Dropped sharply by 16.0% (from $3.07K** to **$2.58K)
BTC/USD Spot Technical Indicators
Price Movement:
- BTC rebounded early in the week from a key support level at $98K**, attempting multiple times to breach **$106K but failing due to insufficient momentum.
- Over the weekend, a combination of Trump’s tariff news and weak long positions above $102K** triggered liquidations, pushing prices below **$98K and briefly down to $91K.
Critical Levels:
- A drop below $90K would invalidate the prior Wave 4 uptrend (refer to chart) and raise questions about longer-term bullish trajectories.
- Major support lies between $89K–$86K; a breakdown could expose lower targets near $75K.
Market Themes
Macroeconomic Drivers
- DeepSeek’s R1 Model Impact: Largely priced in, with selective repositioning in stocks like NVDA. U.S. tech/AI stocks recovered losses post-FOMC’s dovish tilt.
- Trade War Resurgence: Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China disrupted hopes for détente, reigniting global trade tensions.
Crypto Market Reaction
- Weekend Liquidity Crunch: As the only tradable asset during tariff announcements, BTC faced disproportionate selling pressure, tumbling to $96K before Asian markets opened.
- ETH Underperformance: Broke critical $3K** support, plummeting **20%** to **$2.5K, reinforcing its "altcoin" volatility.
👉 How to navigate crypto volatility like a pro
BTC Implied Volatility (IV)
| Metric | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Realized Vol | 40–45 | Suppressed by Lunar New Year lull (Asia trading slowdown). |
| IV (Feb 7) | Peaked at 71 | Spiked post-tariff news, settled at 65 after initial panic. |
| Long-Term IV | Declining | March expiries saw heavy unwinding due to stalled $105K+ rallies. |
Tail Risk Update:
Trump’s proposed crypto savings plan (H2 2025 earliest) has reduced near-term upside tail risks, though IVs rose Monday on trade war hedging.
BTC Skew/Kurtosis
- Short-Term Skew: Sharply negative as prices breached $98K–$100K support, but rebounded post-liquidation.
- Kurtosis: Spiked temporarily on demand for downside protection; stable beyond short-dated contracts.
FAQs
Q: Why did ETH drop more than BTC?
A: ETH’s higher beta to BTC and breakdown of $3K support triggered cascading liquidations.
Q: Will tariffs continue to impact crypto?
A: Yes, until markets fully price in trade war risks, expect localized volatility.
Q: Is $90K a make-or-break level for BTC?
A: A close below $90K** could signal deeper corrections toward **$75K, invalidating recent bullish structure.
👉 Mastering crypto risk management
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Always conduct independent research.
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