In Part 1, we covered four foundational crypto metrics: Bitcoin UTXO Age Distribution, Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, Stock-to-Flow Model, and the ARH999 Accumulation Index. These tools analyze blockchain activity, price valuation, scarcity, and optimal investment timing.
This installment explores six additional metrics that provide macro and micro insights into market cycles:
👉 Master these indicators to navigate crypto markets like a pro
5. Altseason Index
Definition: A market condition where 75% of top-50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin for 90+ consecutive days (per BlockchainCenter).
Historical Patterns:
- 2017-2018 witnessed two altseasons lasting ≈1 month each, followed by major corrections
- April 2021's altseason preceded the "May 19" crash
- Current Status (October 2021): Only 26/50 alts outperforming BTC → Not in altseason
Strategic Insight: Altseasons often signal parabolic tops—ideal profit-taking opportunities.
Source: BlockchainCenter Altcoin Season Index
6. RHODL Ratio
Creator: Philip Swift (@positivecrypto)
Formula: (1-week realized value) / (1-2 year realized value)
Purpose: Identifies macro cycle extremes:
- 🔴 Red zone = Market top (sell signal)
- 🟢 Green zone = Market bottom (buy signal)
Complementary Metric:
The Puell Multiple tracks miner revenue cycles, indicating undervalued (green) and overvalued (red) periods.
Data: LookIntoBitcoin charts
7. Jiang Zhuo'er 60-Day Cumulative Market Cap Growth
Key Concept: Excessive growth (>100%) signals overheated markets nearing correction.
2021 Observation: Peaked at 120% before May downturn.
Source: QKL123
8. Whale Wallets (>1,000 BTC)
Market Impact:
- Address count rose from 2,100 (May 2020) to 2,400 (Feb 2021), then dropped pre-"519" crash
- Current trend: Monitoring for accumulation/distribution signals
Data: LookIntoBitcoin
9. CFTC Institutional Positions
Report Insights:
- 📈 Rising open interest = Increasing market participation
- 📉 Latest data shows institutional long liquidation → Bearish divergence
Source: ChainNews
10. Bitcoin Halving Countdown
Mechanics: Block reward halves every 210,000 blocks (~4 years)
Next Halving: 2024 (reward drops to 3.125 BTC/block)
Historical Correlation: Post-halving supply shocks often precede bull markets.
Source: Bitcoin Clock
FAQ Section
Q: How reliable is the RHODL Ratio for timing investments?
A: It's best used with other metrics—historically accurate within 6-12 month windows.
Q: Do altseasons always lead to crashes?
A: While not guaranteed, 5/6 historical altseasons preceded >40% corrections.
Q: Why track whale wallets?
A: They represent "smart money" often acting before retail investors.
👉 For real-time metric tracking tools
Final Thought: These metrics form a toolkit for assessing market health—combine them with fundamental analysis for optimal decision-making.