Have you ever wondered what the real circulating supply of Bitcoin is? Could spot ETFs genuinely exhaust the available liquidity? Let's break down the numbers and implications.
Understanding Bitcoin's Circulating Supply
- Total Mined BTC: 19,654,193 BTC (as of now)
- Lost/Inactive BTC: Exact figures unknown, but significant portions are estimated to be lost or dormant
- Recently Active BTC: 32.18% (6,324,719 BTC) moved within the past year — this represents the maximum tradable supply
Key Holders of Bitcoin Liquidity
- Exchanges: 1.8M+ BTC held in reserves
- Spot ETFs: 800K+ BTC accumulated over two months (net increase of 200K+)
- MicroStrategy: 200K+ BTC in corporate holdings
- Governments: Various state-seized or reserve holdings
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Adjusting for overlaps (e.g., exchange-held BTC may already count as "recently active"), the true liquid supply likely hovers around 5M BTC (after an 8% reduction for conservative estimates).
The ETF Buying Power Equation
- At $70K/BTC**, buying all 5M BTC would require **$350B.
- Current ETF inflows: $10B+ over two months (excluding Tether’s USDT issuance).
Implications:
- If prices stagnate, ETFs could theoretically buy the entire liquid supply over time.
- Price dips would accelerate this process (e.g., at $50K/BTC, the cost drops to $250B).
Market Dynamics & FOMO
Recent daytime price surges often follow iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) data releases, suggesting ETF-driven FOMO. Thus, ETF inflows are now the critical metric to watch:
- Sustained inflows = upward price pressure.
- Slowdowns or pullbacks without compensating inflows = correction risks.
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Macro Risks: The "Nuclear" Scenario
A U.S. recession remains the top systemic threat, potentially:
- Crushing market sentiment.
- Halting or reversing ETF inflows (e.g., GBTC’s 2022 -50% premium collapse).
Key Takeaway: For retail investors, any major dip may be a rare opportunity to accumulate BTC at lower prices.
FAQ
Q: How much BTC do ETFs currently hold?
A: ~800K BTC, with net inflows of 200K+ BTC in two months.
Q: Could ETFs buy all liquid BTC?
A: Yes, if inflows persist and prices don’t rise exponentially.
Q: What’s the biggest risk to BTC’s rally?
A: A recession-triggered ETF outflow spiral.
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