Bitcoin Price Action and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin recently attempted to reclaim the $108,000 level but failed to sustain momentum, correcting downward below $107,000. This movement could trigger broader selling pressure if support levels weaken.
Key Market Drivers:
- Analysts suggest Bitcoin may soon surpass its previous all-time high of $112,000, especially with easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- Inflation concerns are softening, and potential US tariff reductions add pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.
- The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a 20.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the late-July FOMC meeting.
The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index currently signals "Greed," suggesting continued short-term bullish sentiment.
Trading Strategies for Major Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC) Trading Plan
Buy Scenarios
Entry at $107,200
- Target: $107,800
Conditions:
- 50-day MA below current price
- Awesome Oscillator > 0
- Exit long positions at target and sell on rebound.
Support Boundary at $106,600
- Targets: $107,200 → $107,800
- Only valid if no strong downward breakout occurs.
Sell Scenarios
Entry at $106,600
- Target: $106,200
Conditions:
- 50-day MA above current price
- Awesome Oscillator < 0
- Cover shorts at target and buy on rebound.
Resistance Boundary at $107,200
- Targets: $106,600 → $106,200
- Invalid if upward breakout momentum is strong.
Ethereum (ETH) Trading Plan
Buy Scenarios
Entry at $2,465
- Target: $2,513
Conditions:
- 50-day MA below current price
- Awesome Oscillator > 0
Support at $2,432
- Targets: $2,465 → $2,513
Sell Scenarios
Entry at $2,432
- Target: $2,374
Conditions:
- 50-day MA above current price
- Awesome Oscillator < 0
Resistance at $2,465
- Targets: $2,432 → $2,374
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Market Outlook and Risk Management
- Mid-term bullish trends remain intact for both BTC and ETH.
- Accumulate positions during significant pullbacks.
- Monitor Fed policy signals and macroeconomic data for directional cues.
FAQ Section
Q1: What’s driving Bitcoin’s price volatility?
A: Geopolitical stability, Fed rate expectations, and institutional demand are key factors.
Q2: How reliable is the Fear & Greed Index?
A: It’s a sentiment indicator—useful for contrarian signals but should complement technical analysis.
Q3: Why focus on the 50-day MA?
A: It’s a widely watched dynamic support/resistance level for trend confirmation.
Q4: When is the next critical Fed decision?
A: Late July 2025 FOMC meeting; watch for rate-cut signals.
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Disclaimer: Trading cryptocurrencies involves risk. This analysis is for informational purposes only.
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