Ethereum (ETH) continues to await a Bitcoin (BTC) trend reversal to shift its price momentum, while June 25 marks a record-breaking ETH options expiry. Nearly $1.5 billion worth of ETH options contracts—out of $3.3 billion in total open interest (OI)—will expire, representing 45% of the total OI for these derivatives.
Unprecedented Derivatives Activity
With over 638,000 ETH options contracts expiring, this event stands as the largest in crypto derivatives history. Notably, ETH options OI peaked at $5.5 billion shortly after ETH hit its all-time high of $4,362 on May 12.
Despite ETH currently trading 47.61% below its May peak at ~$2,270, the massive expiry volume signals growing interest in ETH derivatives amid broader market pullbacks. Luuk Strijers, Chief Commercial Officer of Deribit, told Cointelegraph:
"The put-call ratio of 0.79 for June expiry indicates more calls than puts outstanding (64,000 more). This suggests bullish sentiment, though most OI is held in contracts far from ETH’s current price, implying low likelihood of in-the-money expiry."
Bearish Dominance and Market Dynamics
Analysts point to the wide price gaps between strike prices and ETH’s current value as evidence of bearish control. Robbie Liu from OKEx Insights noted:
"The largest OI concentration for calls sits at the $3,200 strike price—far above current levels. This indicates bearish dominance ahead of expiry."
Key terms explained:
- Call options: Allow holders to buy ETH at a preset price upon expiry (bullish).
- Put options: Let holders sell ETH at predetermined terms (bearish/hedging).
The $1,920 "max pain" price—where most options would expire worthless—suggests limited downside risk (~10% below current levels). However, as Black Wednesday (May 19) demonstrated, extreme volatility remains possible.
Institutional Interest and CME’s Role
The CME Ether Futures launch in February 2021 saw $30M+ in daily volume initially. Recent data shows:
- May 2021: Average daily volume of 5,895 contracts (~$6.86M nominal value).
- June 1 peak: 3,977 contracts open ($8.82M at current prices).
Richard Delany of OKEx highlights institutional adoption:
"CME’s endorsement attracts institutional flows, though conditions differ sharply from their 2017 BTC futures launch during a bear market."
👉 Discover how institutions are leveraging ETH derivatives
ETH-BTC Correlation Shifts
ETH’s 30-day correlation with BTC:
- April: 0.7–0.8
- Early May: Dropped to 0.5–0.6 (independent price action)
- June: Rebounded to 0.9+
Despite BTC’s June rally to $41,000, ETH stagnated at $2,400–$2,500. Liu observes:
"ETH/BTC has dipped 20% since June 7 highs. Post-2018, ETH took months to reverse momentum after BTC peaks."
Network Improvements: Gas Fees Drop
Ethereum’s average gas fees hit 6-month lows in June—a relief after April’s Berlin hard fork aimed at scalability. Liu notes:
"High March–April fees drove migration to BSC/Polygon. Current lower fees may stem from reduced activity but offer user relief."
FAQ Section
Q: How could the options expiry impact ETH’s price?
A: With most contracts out-of-the-money, immediate price effects may be muted, but volatility around expiry dates remains likely.
Q: Why is CME’s ETH futures growth limited?
A: Lack of yield opportunities curbs institutional participation compared to BTC products, per Deribit’s Strijers.
Q: Will ETH decouple from BTC long-term?
A: While short-term correlations fluctuate, ETH’s utility (DeFi, NFTs) may drive independent valuation over time.